中金10月数说资产

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the weakening of domestic demand and the need for increased policy support as the economy faces growing pressure, with GDP growth falling below 5% for the third quarter [2][3][4]. Economic Performance - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][5]. - The contribution of capital formation to GDP growth has decreased, while consumption and net exports have increased their contributions [5][6]. - Investment growth has continued to decline, with fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5% for the first nine months [6][7]. Sector Analysis - Industrial production in September saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, supported by external demand, while fixed asset investment has turned negative due to a significant drop in construction and installation projects [6][7]. - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with new housing sales down by 10.5% year-on-year in September, and development investment declining further [8][26][27]. - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, influenced by the tapering of the "old-for-new" policy and a higher base from the previous year [8][29]. Investment Outlook - The article suggests that to achieve the annual GDP growth target of around 5%, there may be a need for more robust growth-stabilizing policies in the coming months [4][5]. - The manufacturing sector's investment growth has declined but remains better than that of real estate and infrastructure, supported by export resilience and policy backing [6][7]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from higher market activity, with non-financial sectors like gold and technology hardware anticipated to be structural highlights [9][11].