HEILAN HOME(SH:600398) 券商中国·2025-10-20 15:28Core Viewpoint - HLA Home has cumulatively distributed over 21 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, but its financial statements reveal increasing cracks, including stagnant revenue growth and declining net profits, raising concerns about its upcoming Hong Kong listing [1][4][52]. Group 1: Financial Performance - HLA Home's revenue has alternated between slight increases and declines over the years, with a 1.73% increase in the first half of 2025, but a 3.1% decrease in net profit [1][11][12]. - The company's main brand revenue has been declining, and overseas revenue accounts for less than 2% of total revenue [1][2]. - The company has faced significant inventory issues, with inventory reaching 10.255 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 57.83% of net assets and a turnover period of 323 days [2][24]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Debt - HLA Home's cash flow has been under pressure, with a 42.91% drop in monetary funds in 2024 and a 55.7% decrease in operating cash flow [2][28]. - The company has over 10 billion yuan in short-term debt, and its accounts payable exceed its cash reserves, indicating a tight cash flow situation [2][29]. - Despite these challenges, HLA Home has maintained high dividend payouts, distributing 6.516 billion yuan in cash dividends over the last three years, which raises concerns about the sustainability of this strategy amid declining profits [30][31]. Group 3: Business Model and Market Position - HLA Home's unique business model, which relies on a "light asset" and "quasi-financial" approach, has been instrumental in its rapid growth but is now facing challenges as market conditions change [39][41]. - The company has shifted its strategy under new leadership to focus on brand modernization and expanding its product range, including women's and children's clothing [14][47]. - However, the core brand's revenue continues to decline, with a 7.22% drop in 2024, and the company is increasingly reliant on its group purchasing and other brands for revenue growth [16][50]. Group 4: Market Challenges - HLA Home's inventory issues are exacerbated by a high percentage of unsold goods, with over 46.9 billion yuan of inventory aged over one year, leading to potential write-downs [27][21]. - The company's sales expenses have increased significantly, while R&D spending remains low, indicating a potential imbalance in investment priorities [48][50]. - The upcoming Hong Kong listing aims to enhance capital and international presence, but fundamental issues such as product competitiveness and supply chain stability remain unresolved [53][52].