杠杆警报！美股这个“狂热指标”已经超过了1999年和2007年

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank highlights a significant increase in investor leverage, with margin debt rising 32.4% from April to September, marking a concerning trend reminiscent of past market bubbles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Leverage Increase - The speed of leverage increase is unprecedented, surpassing levels seen during the 1999 internet bubble and the 2007 financial crisis [4][6]. - The current margin debt is approaching historical highs, with its ratio to U.S. nominal GDP nearing the peak recorded in Q3 2021 [6][9]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted from healthy bullishness to irrational exuberance, as evidenced by the rapid borrowing for stock purchases [4][6]. - Historical data indicates that periods of high margin debt growth often precede poor entry points for risk assets [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike the 2020-2021 period, current fiscal and monetary conditions are less supportive, raising concerns about market resilience [8][9]. - The absence of substantial liquidity support suggests that the risks associated with extreme leverage levels may be more severe than generally perceived [9].