热点思考 |“四中”前瞻：新“五年”的新期待（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the signals and implications from the recent Central Political Bureau meeting regarding the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing themes such as fairness, localized development, high-level openness, and the combination of effective markets and proactive government roles [3][10]. Group 1: Signals from the September Central Political Bureau Meeting - The meeting highlighted the importance of "people" and "fairness," as well as the need for localized development and high-level openness [3][11]. - It emphasized the necessity of combining effective markets with proactive government intervention, indicating a shift in how market-government relations will be addressed in the 15th Five-Year Plan [11][12]. - The meeting also reinforced the concept of "bottom-line thinking," stressing the importance of security in economic and social development [11][12]. Group 2: Main Lines of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to focus on high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial upgrading, serving as a critical phase in achieving the 2035 modernization goals [5][18]. - The plan aims to maintain an average economic growth rate of around 4.4% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year periods to meet the long-term goal of doubling GDP per capita by 2035 [21][26]. - The emphasis on "people-centered" development and safety guarantees indicates that social welfare and security will remain key components of the 15th Five-Year Plan [26][29]. Group 3: Key Industry Directions in the 15th Five-Year Plan - The plan is likely to continue supporting emerging pillar industries, with a focus on cultivating new productive forces and enhancing the integration of the real economy with the digital economy [7][33]. - Key sectors mentioned include marine economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, and other future industries, as outlined in various government reports and meetings [8][38]. - The plan will also prioritize the development of strategic emerging industries, such as information technology, aerospace, and renewable energy, to drive economic transformation [8][38].