日股再创新高，野村：日股的关键在于高市早苗能撑多久

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by expectations of stable government and economic reforms under the leadership of new Prime Minister Kishi Sanae, rather than solely relying on inflationary policies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 21, the Japanese stock market opened strong, rising by 1% to reach 49,675.43 points, setting a new historical high [2]. - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also followed suit, approaching its historical peak [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The driving force behind the market's momentum is the strong expectation that Kishi Sanae's government will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy [5]. - The concept of "Kishi trading" is evolving from a focus on inflationary measures and weak yen to a greater emphasis on political stability and structural economic reforms [6]. Group 3: Political Support and Market Stability - Political support rates are critical for the sustainability of the stock market's upward trend. A recent poll indicated a support rate of 44% for Kishi Sanae's cabinet, significantly higher than previous administrations, while the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) support stands at only 20% [7]. - Analysts suggest that a weak government may rely more on inflationary measures, which could undermine the foundation of "Kishi trading" [7]. Group 4: Cautious Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's enthusiasm, some investment managers express caution regarding the new coalition government's stability and its ability to implement expansive policies [8]. - Concerns have been raised about the political and economic limitations that may hinder Kishi's ability to pursue a large-scale expansion agenda [8].