巴克莱：美国AI产业链财报季前瞻，这家投行称：小心“利好出尽”，抱紧“英伟达、博通和AMD”

Core Viewpoint - Barclays indicates that while the AI investment cycle is still in its early stages, some stocks have fully priced in the benefits of AI deployment, suggesting investors should be more selective with AI concept stocks [1][3]. Group 1: AI Investment Strategy - Barclays recommends concentrating AI exposure on leading companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD, while downgrading Marvell, Astera Labs, and Lumentum to neutral ratings [3][5]. - The firm warns of a potential "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario during the upcoming earnings season, as current valuations are high [3][5]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 15% since Q3, with AI and memory sectors showing even greater gains [3][5]. Group 2: Stock Ratings Adjustments - Marvell's rating is downgraded to neutral due to challenges in its ASIC and optical market shares, with a target price maintained at $80 [6][15]. - Astera Labs is also downgraded to neutral, with a target price of $155, as the company faces a significant product transition and lacks a clear growth path post-Trainium 3 [11][12]. - Lumentum's rating is lowered to neutral, with a target price of $165, as its recent stock price surge has fully reflected its short-term growth potential [15][16]. Group 3: KLA's Upgraded Rating - KLA's rating is upgraded to overweight, with a target price raised from $750 to $1200, based on its strong position in the process control market and high exposure to advanced processes [18][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from increasing process control intensity due to rising technological complexity [18][19]. Group 4: HBM Demand and Micron's Outlook - Barclays provides a detailed HBM demand forecast, projecting a potential demand of approximately 50.7 exabytes based on AI computing projects, significantly boosting Micron's long-term growth outlook [21][22]. - The estimated HBM market size for 2025 is projected to be around $652.4 billion, with Micron's potential annual HBM revenue reaching $25.1 billion, far exceeding the expected $6.8 billion for 2025 [22][24]. Group 5: Semiconductor Market Concerns - Barclays expresses caution regarding the analog chip sector, suggesting a potential structural contraction in the total addressable market (TAM) rather than just cyclical fluctuations [25][28]. - The firm maintains a cautious outlook on Texas Instruments, anticipating downward risks for revenue and profit margins in the upcoming quarter [30].