美股IPO·2025-10-21 07:05Core Viewpoint - The AI wave is driving a capital frenzy in the U.S. data center industry, with significant investments and new players entering the market, but underlying challenges such as profit expectations versus reality, systemic risks from circular dependencies, and the inexperience of new entrants are emerging [1]. Investment Trends - At a recent data center industry conference, major players like OpenAI, xAI, and Meta pledged to invest hundreds of billions over the next decade, shifting the focus from site and power acquisition to building high-capacity data centers [3]. - BlackRock and MGX led a record $40 billion acquisition of Aligned Data Centers, highlighting the aggressive investment climate [3]. Innovative Financing Structures - The industry is developing creative financing methods to support massive investments, with leaseback transactions becoming popular, allowing companies like xAI and OpenAI to reduce costs while maintaining operational control [4]. - These transactions blur the lines between customers, suppliers, and financiers, facilitating continuous capital flow into data center construction [4]. Nvidia's Role - Nvidia is not only a chip supplier but also deeply involved in financing, providing funds to chip customers and data center projects, raising concerns about potential market distortions and dependency [5]. - OpenAI's recent commitment to using AMD chips indicates a move to break Nvidia's monopoly [5]. Industry Disruption - New entrants like Poolside and Fermi are challenging traditional industry norms by entering large-scale data center projects without prior experience, leading to skepticism from established developers [6]. - There is a growing belief that aggressive projects may fail due to delays and power shortages, indicating a potential industry shake-up [6]. Profitability Challenges - Despite optimistic forecasts from Oracle, actual financial data reveals a significant gap in profit margins for AI cloud services, with current leasing rates for Nvidia chips falling 15-20 percentage points short of targets [7]. - AI cloud providers face pressure to secure expensive chips ahead of project completion, complicating their financial planning [7]. Systemic Risks - The overlapping roles of suppliers, customers, and financiers are creating systemic risks, as evidenced by Microsoft's decision to let Oracle handle part of OpenAI's server needs, suggesting a cautious outlook on long-term demand [8]. - The industry is characterized by a divide where established players with technical expertise and financial resilience are better positioned to withstand market fluctuations compared to new entrants [8].