温差与转型共存（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between macroeconomic data and microeconomic experiences, highlighting the ongoing economic transformation in China and its implications for growth and distribution [2][10]. Economic Growth Data - In Q3, GDP at constant prices grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, while nominal GDP growth was 3.7%, down from 3.9% [4]. - To achieve the annual growth target of 5%, a Q4 GDP growth of 4.6% is required [4]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Q3 saw significant declines in fixed asset investment, retail sales, and exports, with respective growth rates dropping to -6.6%, 3.4%, and 7% [4]. - The disparity between GDP growth and the decline in investment and consumption indicates a "temperature difference" in economic performance [5]. Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial output increased by 5.8% year-on-year in Q3, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.6%, outpacing overall industrial growth [8][9]. - The service sector also showed resilience, with a 5.4% increase in value added, particularly in information technology and business services [9]. Consumption and Investment Discrepancies - Retail sales growth fell by 2 percentage points in Q3, but service consumption remained stable, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP growth [14]. - Fixed asset investment declined by 6.6%, yet capital formation still positively impacted GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [14]. Future Economic Outlook - Despite potential declines in Q4 growth due to high base effects, effective policy measures are expected to support the achievement of the 5% growth target [16]. - The focus for Q4 will be on boosting service consumption and fixed asset investment, with significant financial support anticipated [16][17].