大摩：需求激增、库存枯竭、存储已成“卖方市场”，大摩：投资者不应因“恐高”而离场

Core Viewpoint - The AI wave is driving the storage chip market into a strong upward cycle, with demand surging and supply lagging, leading to a seller's market where DRAM inventory has dropped to below two weeks, and prices have increased by up to 25% [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage industry is in the early to mid-stage of a robust upward cycle, with the best price increases yet to come, urging investors not to exit prematurely due to fear of heights [2][8] - A channel survey indicates that due to a surge in orders from U.S. cloud service customers, storage chip manufacturers have reported price increases of up to 25% for DRAM and NAND flash for Q4 2025, indicating a strong shift towards a seller's market [3][4] - The current supply-demand imbalance for traditional memory is more severe than expected, with DRAM manufacturers' inventory plummeting to below two weeks and NAND flash inventory falling below long-term averages [4][5] Group 2: Price Projections - The new capacity is expected to catch up with demand in 4 to 6 quarters, with supply lagging issues likely to persist, prompting customers to build buffer inventories, further solidifying the seller's market [5][10] - Current prices are still far from historical peaks, with potential for prices to double, especially in the context of AI-driven demand reshaping the global storage market [6][10] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The report addresses the common "fear of heights" among investors, stating that new highs often lead to even higher peaks, supported by strong earnings momentum rather than just AI narratives [8] - The analysis highlights that stronger earnings revisions lead to stronger stock returns, as evidenced by the significant price increases of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, with SK Hynix's stock rising approximately 140% due to a 62% upward revision in earnings expectations [8]