需求激增、库存枯竭、存储已成“卖方市场”，大摩：投资者不应因“恐高”而离场

Core Viewpoint - The AI wave is driving a strong upward cycle in the storage chip market, with demand surging and supply lagging, leading to a seller's market where prices have increased by up to 25% [2][3][5]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the storage industry is in the early to mid-stage of a robust upward cycle, with significant price increases expected [3][5]. - Due to a surge in orders from U.S. cloud service customers, storage chip manufacturers have reported price increases of up to 25% for DRAM and NAND flash for Q4 2025 [5][6]. - Current inventory levels for DRAM have dropped to below two weeks, while NAND flash inventory has fallen below long-term averages, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [6][11]. Group 2: Price Projections - Morgan Stanley believes that current prices are still far from historical peaks, suggesting potential for prices to double from current levels [6][11]. - The report highlights that the price of server memory modules, which peaked at $10 per GB in Q1 2018, is currently around $5.4 per GB, indicating room for significant price recovery [11]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Timing - The report addresses the common investor fear of heights, labeling it a cognitive bias, and emphasizes that staying in the market is more important than trying to time it perfectly [9][12]. - Strong earnings momentum is identified as the key driver of stock prices, rather than just the AI narrative, with examples showing that stronger earnings revisions lead to better stock returns [10][12].