Cynda(SH:603086) 市值风云·2025-10-21 10:07Core Viewpoint - The key to breaking the deadlock lies in the rhythm and realization of pesticide production volume [1] Group 1: Company Performance - XianDa Co., Ltd. (603086.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 205 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2,807.87% to 3,211.74%, the highest growth rate among companies that have disclosed their third-quarter performance [4] - The significant profit increase in 2025 is attributed to three main factors: a low base from previous losses, a substantial rise in the market price of its main product, Acetochlor, and the sales of its newly developed product, Pyrazolyl Quinclorac [6][8][12] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The domestic pesticide industry stabilized in the first half of 2025, with the pesticide price index stopping its decline and showing slight recovery [11] - The price of Acetochlor rose dramatically from 68,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by July 2025, an increase of over 135% [11] Group 3: Product Development - XianDa has developed a product matrix centered around Quinclorac, Pyrazolyl Quinclorac, and Benzoyl Acetochlor, targeting specific climatic and agricultural conditions in China [14][21] - Quinclorac is the first innovative product, launched in December 2020, designed for selective weed control in sorghum fields, with a sales target of 5 million acres and an estimated annual revenue of around 40 to 50 million yuan [15][16] - Pyrazolyl Quinclorac, approved for registration in September 2024, is expected to generate annual sales of approximately 1 billion yuan over three years, although current performance indicates a significant gap from this target [18][19] - Benzoyl Acetochlor is currently under review and aims to effectively control resistant weeds in Southeast Asia [20] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - Despite the impressive growth, XianDa's performance heavily relies on Acetochlor prices, and the future revenue expectations from the three innovative products are not high, making it difficult to escape this dependency in the short term [22] - The potential for significant fluctuations in performance exists if Acetochlor prices decline or if competitors resume production, which could impact profitability [23][25]