经济分化加大，稳预期需加力——9月经济数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of strengthening expectations to enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor sentiment amid a diversified economic structure and weak visible demand [2][3][9]. Economic Perspective - Economic growth shows significant differentiation, with actual GDP growth at 4.8% and nominal GDP growth at 3.7% in Q3. Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth was only 2.98%, resulting in a 3.2% growth differential [5][15]. - External demand is outperforming internal demand, with export growth at 7.1% compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed asset investment, leading to a 5.18% growth gap [5][15]. - Within consumer spending, travel and policy-driven replacement chains are growing at 8.6%, while essential categories like food and clothing are stagnating at 0.3% [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment shows a stark contrast, with construction investment declining by 4.1% while equipment investment surged by 14% [6][15]. Investment Perspective - Visible demand is under pressure, with a -1.4% growth rate in visible demand indicators such as retail sales and real estate sales, while invisible demand grew by 5.7% [7][21]. - The leading indicator for profitability, old M1, faces challenges due to high base effects, complicating recovery expectations [8][21]. Need for Stabilizing Expectations - To enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor expectations, policy measures need to be intensified. Recent policy tools and incremental funding deployments have been observed [9][26]. - The core of stabilizing expectations lies in housing prices and stock prices, with long-term confidence in economic transformation and short-term goals requiring a Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet annual targets [3][27]. Detailed Economic Data Analysis - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.8%, down from 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7%. The PPI averaged -2.9% and CPI at -0.2% [35][39]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 56.6%, while capital formation contributed 18.9% [40]. - Consumer spending growth was 3.4%, lower than income growth of 4.5%, indicating a decline in spending inclination compared to the previous year [41]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [44]. - The number of migrant workers increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with average monthly income growth at 2.4% [48]. September Economic Data Analysis - In September, industrial output growth was 6.5%, while retail sales growth was 3.0%, indicating a mixed demand environment [52][58]. - Real estate sales area declined by 10.5%, and fixed asset investment growth remained weak at -7.1% [62][67]. - The stock market's low volatility has increased the relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, suggesting a need for continued policy measures to stabilize stock prices [10][33].