玻璃：后期价格还有上涨概率吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the glass market, highlighting inventory pressures and price fluctuations, with a neutral to pessimistic outlook for future pricing trends [4][5][6]. Group 1: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Hubei manufacturers are experiencing stable inventory pressure, with prices expected to fluctuate around 1100 yuan under the 2601 contract [4]. - In contrast, Shahe manufacturers face significant inventory pressure, with production profits higher than last year's deep losses, indicating a potential price drop to the 1010-1030 yuan range if market sentiment turns extremely pessimistic [5]. - The glass market has seen a substantial accumulation of inventory post the October holiday, with mainstream regions at historically high inventory levels, suggesting a short-term negative feedback loop in sales [6]. Group 2: Current Negative Factors - The midstream sector still holds high inventory levels, leading to passive accumulation by manufacturers [7]. - Both Shahe and Hubei manufacturers have inventory levels above the same period last year, with a strong willingness to sell at lower prices following futures price declines [8]. - Shahe's inventory is currently higher than in September 2024, with profits around 90 yuan, indicating a larger price drop potential compared to Hubei, which has seen prices rise from 950 yuan last September to approximately 1040 yuan now [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current market is characterized by a slight oversupply, but not to a significant extent, with expectations of maintaining seasonal production in Q4 [6]. - The glass market is anticipated to remain in a low-price fluctuation range of 1000-1200 yuan, with long-term supply-demand expectations continuing to weaken [9]. - Without a rebound in prices from November to December, the market is likely to maintain low-level fluctuations, requiring a reduction in supply for any long-term price increases [9].