读研报 | 当缩量不期而至

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market has experienced a noticeable decrease in trading volume, indicating a potential shift towards a more cautious investment atmosphere [2][3][5] Trading Volume Analysis - Multiple broad-based indices have shown weakened trading activity, with the average daily turnover of the CSI 300 index dropping from approximately 662.9 billion yuan in September to about 650 billion yuan [2] - The trading volume for mid-cap and small-cap indices, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, decreased by 10% and 12% respectively, while the daily trading volume for the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell significantly by 20% and 13% compared to September [2] - As of October 20, A-share trading volume has remained below 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days, suggesting a growing atmosphere of caution among investors [2] Differentiation of Fund Types - There is a notable divergence in the actions of different types of funds, with trading-type funds showing a decline in activity. The number of participating investors has decreased to levels seen in early September, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 13.7 billion yuan [2][3] - Conversely, the willingness of allocation-type funds to invest has increased, as evidenced by a rise in public fund positions for the first time since mid-August and a net inflow of 780 million yuan from actively managed foreign capital, marking a new high since 2025 [3] Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The remaining liquidity in the market has likely passed its most rapid growth phase, with M2 growth slowing from 8.8% in August to 8.4% in September, indicating a marginal reduction in liquidity [5] - Although current liquidity remains ample, its degree of expansion may not continue significantly, suggesting that future valuation expansion could be limited, while the core driving force may shift towards earnings per share (EPS) [5] - The market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend rather than a "fast bull," with the current environment supporting gradual growth rather than rapid increases [5][6] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The concept of "reduced volume" is relative, as the recent trading volumes are lower compared to the exceptional days of over 2 trillion yuan, which are not the norm in the market [6] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations and requires rational thinking rather than excessive enthusiasm, indicating a transition from a fast bull market to a slow bull market is likely [6]