东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-10-21 11:18Core Viewpoint - The bus industry represents China's automotive manufacturing sector becoming a global leader in technology output, with overseas market contributions expected to recreate a market equivalent to China in the next 3-5 years [4][12]. Group 1: Driving Factors for the Bus Industry - Timing: Aligns with the national strategy of "China's Special Valuation," with buses being key players in the "Belt and Road" initiative, leveraging over a decade of international experience [4][12]. - Geographical Advantage: Chinese bus technology and products are at a world-class level, leading in new energy buses and competitive in traditional buses regarding cost-effectiveness and service [4][12]. - Human Factors: The end of the domestic price war is expected to create a positive resonance, with demand recovering due to tourism and public transport renewal needs [4][12]. Group 2: Profitability Outlook - The current conditions suggest that achieving new high profitability is not out of reach, supported by the absence of price wars, an oligopolistic market structure, and better profit margins in overseas markets [5][16]. Group 3: Market Capitalization Potential - The short-term goal is to challenge the market capitalization peak from 2015-2017, while the long-term goal is to establish a new ceiling, witnessing the emergence of a true global bus leader [6][13]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Yutong Bus: Identified as a "model student" with high growth and dividend attributes, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.3 billion, 55.2 billion, and 66.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21% [7][14]. - King Long Automobile: Considered the "fastest improving student," with significant profit elasticity, projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 182%, 45%, and 28% [8][14]. Group 5: Industry Performance Data - In September 2025, the overall monthly production of the bus industry was 54,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 21% [19][20]. - The wholesale volume for September was 56,000 units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 34% and month-on-month growth of 25% [19][20]. - The terminal sales volume reached 57,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 28% and month-on-month growth of 35% [26].