国泰海通｜银行：25Q3银行业绩前瞻：营收利润有望保持正增，资产质量指标稳定

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that listed banks will see a cumulative revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 0.4% and 1.1% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, with improvements attributed to a narrowing decline in interest margins and a decrease in impairment provisions [1]. Revenue Analysis - Interest net income and net income from fees and commissions are expected to continue improving, with year-on-year growth rates rebounding further compared to mid-year reports. However, other non-interest income may experience a significant decline due to bond market volatility and high base effects, potentially leading to a slight positive growth in cumulative revenue for the first three quarters [2]. - The growth rate of interest net income is projected to decrease by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% compared to mid-year reports, with new RMB loans from financial institutions in Q3 2025 amounting to 1.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 920 billion yuan. The net interest margin is expected to narrow from 14 basis points to 12 basis points year-on-year, remaining stable at 1.41% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability Insights - The asset quality remains stable, with expectations for credit costs to continue declining, smoothing out profit fluctuations. Banks are likely to maintain a prudent operating style, with excess impairment provisions set aside in the first half of the year to address uncertainties. As the economy stabilizes in the second half, the space for reducing provisions will gradually increase, leading to a potential sequential rise in net profit growth [3]. - The banking sector has disposed of over 14.5 trillion yuan in non-performing assets from 2021 to the first half of 2025, with retail banking risks having peaked. For instance, the retail non-performing loan generation rate for a major bank in Q2 2025 was 1.65%, lower than levels seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable compared to mid-year reports, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio and a year-on-year decline in credit costs of approximately 4 basis points to 0.40% [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the mid-term dividend timeline for banks approaches, there may be opportunities for the sector to catch up if market sentiment shifts towards balance as the year-end approaches [4].