国泰海通｜宏观：生产强、需求弱——2025年三季度经济数据点评

Core Insights - The article highlights a "strong production, weak demand" pattern in China's economy for Q3 2025, necessitating structural policy adjustments to address internal and external demand pressures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 [1] - Monthly data indicates a shift in economic dynamics due to policy transitions and holiday timing, with September showing strong production but weak demand [1] Production Sector - Structural improvements in the production sector were noted, with resilient exports and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival contributing positively [1] - The "anti-involution" policies have lessened their disruptive effects on production, leading to a focus on quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [1] Demand Sector - Consumer growth appears sluggish, with holiday timing causing a delay in consumption [1] - The effectiveness of trade-in policies has diminished, and property income has negatively impacted income growth and consumer confidence [1] Investment Trends - Investment continues to face challenges, although new infrastructure initiatives are showing marginal signs of improvement [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests employing structural tools for counter-cyclical adjustments, such as expanding equipment renewal subsidies, issuing consumption vouchers, and optimizing export tax rebates to mitigate current economic downturn pressures [1]