商品回吐近一个季度涨幅后的结构性判断

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data indicates a structural change in credit, with signs of monetary activation emerging, but the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be solidified [4]. Financial Data Analysis - In September, new credit decreased year-on-year, but M1 growth rebounded significantly to 7.2%, the highest since March 2021. The gap between M2 and M1 growth narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, the lowest since January 2021, indicating increased fund activity [4]. - Social financing growth slightly declined to 8.7%, with government bond financing decreasing by 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting the challenges and adjustments in policy during the economic recovery process [4]. Export and Fiscal Policy - Export faces downward pressure due to increasing global trade barriers, necessitating effective domestic policy responses. From January to September, net government bond financing reached 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year. The remaining quota for the fourth quarter is approximately 3.2 trillion yuan, averaging 1.1 trillion yuan per month, which is lower than the previous three quarters [4]. Monetary Policy Outlook - With the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, the pressure from the China-U.S. interest rate differential has eased, providing more autonomy for domestic policy. There is a general expectation of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions before the end of the year [5]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the easing of loan disturbances from "debt reduction" are expected to improve medium- and long-term corporate loans [5]. Commodity Market Insights - Domestic industrial products are currently underperforming compared to overseas markets, partly due to weak real estate demand, indicating that the internal recovery of the economy is not yet solid [6]. - The future economic trajectory will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and changes in the external environment, particularly the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [6]. Strategic Planning and Economic Goals - The upcoming 20th National Congress will set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan. If unexpected signals are released regarding technological independence and expanding domestic demand, it could boost market sentiment [7]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) aims for an average economic growth target of 4.6%-4.8% and focuses on enhancing new productive forces, upgrading traditional industries, and promoting strategic emerging industries [7]. Trade and Pricing Dynamics - The escalation of U.S.-China tensions will directly impact the prices of commodities highly dependent on foreign trade. The market may price in the negative effects of a slowdown in global economic growth due to heightened U.S.-China confrontations [8]. - Given that most industrial product prices are currently at low levels, the market is likely to favor pricing in the impacts of resource protectionism over the negative effects of economic slowdown [8]. Timeline of Key Events - October 20-23: The Fourth Plenary Session will set the tone for the 14th Five-Year Plan, potentially boosting market sentiment if policies exceed expectations [9]. - Late October: The APEC meeting will influence global trade chain confidence based on the outcomes of U.S.-China discussions [9]. - November 1: The deadline for U.S. tariffs will affect sensitive commodities such as precious metals, copper, and protein meal [9].