Apple(US:AAPL) Canalys·2025-10-22 01:02Core Insights - The Indian smartphone market is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching a shipment volume of 48.4 million units, driven by pre-festival inventory replenishment and retail promotions [2][7]. Market Performance - Vivo leads the market with a shipment of 9.7 million units, capturing a 20% market share. Samsung follows with 6.8 million units and a 14% share, while Xiaomi and OPPO are nearly tied with 6.5 million units each, both holding a 13% share. Apple returns to the top five with 4.9 million units, driven by demand from lower-tier cities [2][7]. Sales Strategies - The market momentum in Q3 is primarily driven by channel incentives rather than pure consumer demand recovery. Manufacturers are reallocating marketing budgets to impactful retail incentive programs, including dealer competitions with rewards such as cash bonuses and travel [4][6]. Brand Strategies - Vivo's strong market position is attributed to a balanced product portfolio and aggressive retail strategies. Samsung is making progress in the mid-to-high-end market with new models but faces challenges in the entry-level segment. OPPO's growth is supported by targeted promotional plans centered around the F31 series [4][5]. Apple’s Performance - Apple achieved its highest-ever shipment volume in India during Q3, with a market share of 10%. Growth is fueled by demand for high-end models and effective promotional strategies, particularly in smaller cities [5]. Future Outlook - Despite a strong early performance in Q3, growth is not expected to continue into the year-end peak period. Urban consumers remain cautious due to job uncertainty and cost sensitivity, leading to delayed upgrades. The overall smartphone market is anticipated to see a slight decline in 2025, reflecting a fragile recovery sensitive to economic conditions [6].