金银暴跌！盘中分别创十二年来和四年多来最大跌幅，“所有目光聚焦沪金开盘”

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after reaching record highs, with gold and silver facing their largest daily declines in years, prompting analysts to focus on upcoming market developments in Shanghai [1][2]. Price Movements - Gold saw its largest daily drop in twelve years, with spot gold nearing $4082, down approximately 6.3%, while New York futures fell to $4093, down 6.1%. By the end of the day, spot gold settled at $4130.41 per ounce, down 5.18% [2]. - Silver also faced a substantial decline, dropping below $47.90, down nearly 8.7%, marking its largest intraday drop since February 2021. New York silver futures fell to $47.12, down about 8.3%, with spot silver closing at $48.7050 per ounce, down 7.16% [2]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - Multiple factors pressured precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a stronger dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions, which collectively ended the previous upward trend [4]. - The sell-off coincided with the U.S. government shutdown, leading to a lack of critical holding data. Analysts warned that speculative long positions may have accumulated significantly, making gold and silver more susceptible to corrections [4][9]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, raising concerns among traders about potential corrections and consolidations [6]. - The volatility in precious metals surged, with traders seeking to hedge against potential price declines or profit from the downturn. Record trading volumes in options linked to the largest gold ETF were observed [8]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts noted a lack of significant physical demand from India, which has historically been a key buyer, contributing to market pressure [12]. - UBS reported that the absence of substantial demand from India on the day of the price drop was notable, and financing pressures for both silver and gold were easing [13]. Diverging Analyst Opinions - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, suggesting that potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [5][15]. - Others pointed out that the recent price drop could indicate that investors are not overly optimistic, suggesting that the upward momentum for gold may have limits [15]. Silver Market Adjustments - The silver market, which had surged nearly 80% this year, also experienced a significant drop, driven by macroeconomic factors supporting gold and historical market tightness in London [18]. - There was a notable outflow of silver from warehouses associated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange, marking the largest single-day outflow since February [19].