傅里叶的猫·2025-10-21 15:34Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded SMIC's rating, raising the target price from HKD 40 to HKD 80, anticipating an expansion in leading edge capacity and resolution of equipment bottlenecks [2] - Chinese mobile announced plans to deploy 100,000 local GPU networks by 2028, leading to an updated revenue forecast for China's AI GPU market, projected to reach RMB 113 billion in 2026 and RMB 180 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 62% [2] - The report indicates that while NVIDIA's market share in China is nearly zero, there are still opportunities for local suppliers to fill the gap, particularly in AI high-performance computing and other semiconductor demands [2] Group 2 - The bottleneck in the semiconductor market is not expected to be TSMC's capacity but rather specific memory or server rack components, with TSMC reporting stronger-than-expected AI demand [3] - AI cluster sizes are moving towards over 100,000 GPUs, driving new standards in Ethernet design and liquid cooling for AI racks [3] - The semiconductor supply chain is projected to expand significantly by 2026, with a focus on CPO and NAND module manufacturers [4] Group 3 - Global CoWoS consumption is expected to reach 1,154k wafers in 2026, with NVIDIA holding a 59% market share, and HBM consumption projected at 2.6 billion GB [5] - AI capital expenditures remain strong, with cloud capex expected to reach USD 582 billion in 2026, reflecting a 31% annual growth [5] - AI GPU and ASIC rental prices have seen slight declines, but demand for AI inference in China remains robust, indicating a positive outlook for the AI supply chain [5]