野村首席观点 | 陆挺：中国“十五五”规划前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (referred to as "15th Plan") is crucial for China's economic and social development from 2026 to 2030, with a draft to be submitted for review in March next year [4]. Group 1: Economic Context - China is the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP and the largest by purchasing power parity, playing a significant role in global economic growth and consumption of major commodities [4]. - The government faces challenges due to the ongoing decline in the real estate market since 2021, which has impacted the economy [4]. Group 2: Planning and Goals - The government is likely to avoid setting specific growth targets for the "15th Plan," focusing instead on high-quality development, resilience, safety, and inclusiveness, with annual growth targets set later [5]. - A potential growth target of "around 4.5%" for 2026 is anticipated, gradually shifting to "around 4%" by 2030 [5]. Group 3: Investment and Policy Focus - Continued investment and industrial policies will be directed towards achieving technological self-reliance, particularly in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology [5]. - The traditional economy, centered around the real estate sector, will remain a growth pillar while efforts to address real estate market debt and fiscal system repair are expected [5]. Group 4: Social Welfare Reforms - The government may reform the social welfare system, especially the pension system, to achieve income redistribution, with significant increases in basic pension payments for low-income families and enhanced medical insurance subsidies [5].