S&P Global(US:SPGI) 财富FORTUNE·2025-10-21 13:04Core Insights - The report by S&P Global indicates that corporate losses this year are expected to increase by at least $1.2 trillion compared to earlier predictions, primarily due to the impact of tariffs, rising wages, energy prices, and increased capital expenditures, especially in AI infrastructure [2][5] - S&P Global forecasts total corporate spending to reach $53 trillion this year, revising its earlier estimates from January [2] - The analysis is based on predictions from over 15,000 analysts covering approximately 9,000 publicly traded companies, which collectively represent about 85% of the global stock market capitalization [2] Corporate Profitability - The report highlights a significant contraction in expected global corporate profit margins, with a projected loss of approximately $907 billion, equating to a 0.64% decrease in profits for the companies covered by sell-side analysts [2][4] - The loss is attributed to a combination of a $600 billion upward revision in revenue forecasts and a $300 billion downward revision in profit forecasts [2] Consumer Impact - Approximately two-thirds of the estimated $907 billion loss is being passed on to consumers through price increases, amounting to about $592 billion [3] - The remaining one-third, approximately $315 billion, is being absorbed internally by companies through reduced profit margins [4] Broader Economic Implications - The analysis extends beyond the 9,000 covered companies, including an additional estimated $155 billion in expenses from uncovered public companies and about $123 billion from private equity and venture capital-backed firms, leading to a total incremental cost of $1.2 trillion by 2025 [5] - The debate continues regarding who bears the brunt of the price increases driven by tariffs, with differing views on the impact across income levels [6][7] Tariff Effects - The report suggests that tariffs act as a regressive tax, disproportionately affecting low-income consumers who spend a larger portion of their income on goods subject to tariffs [6][7] - High-income households are less affected by these price increases due to their financial flexibility and spending patterns [7] Government Response - The White House maintains that the pressure on American consumers will be temporary, asserting that the costs of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters [8] - Companies are reportedly adjusting and diversifying their supply chains in response to tariffs, including efforts to bring production back to the U.S. [8] Profit Loss Estimates - S&P Global warns that the estimated corporate profit losses could be higher than the "highly conservative" figures presented, as companies not covered by analysts tend to be smaller and less diversified [9]