【宏观】黄金“狂欢”未歇，铜价能否共舞？——《光大投资时钟》系列报告第二十六篇（赵格格/刘星辰）

Core Viewpoint - Recent events such as the resurgence of US-China trade tensions, Powell's indication of ending balance sheet reduction, and the crisis in US regional banks have accelerated capital inflows into the gold market. While short-term bullish factors for gold prices are largely priced in, the long-term bull market is far from over. Following the rapid increase in gold prices, copper prices are expected to experience a rebound due to the historical low copper-to-gold ratio and the increasing strategic importance of copper driven by global energy transition and AI revolution [4][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term upward momentum for gold prices may slow down as the market has fully priced in the remaining two interest rate cuts for the year and the marginal easing of US-China trade tensions [5][6]. - Long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact due to the ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions, risks associated with US debt repayment, and the declining purchasing power of the dollar. The US is entering a liquidity easing cycle, which will reopen the space for debt expansion [6][7]. - Historical parallels are drawn between the current situation and the 1970s gold bull market, characterized by rampant dollar liquidity and a loss of Federal Reserve independence, leading to a potential collapse of "dollar faith" [7][8]. Group 2: Copper Market Outlook - The current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for copper price recovery following the rise in gold prices. The copper-to-gold ratio has a strong correlation with the US manufacturing PMI, which is currently at a low point [9]. - Copper is entering a structural shortage cycle, with its price center expected to rise in the long term. Demand is shifting from traditional industrial sectors to technology and energy, driven by global energy transition and AI advancements [10]. - Supply constraints are exacerbated by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining, declining ore grades, and extended development cycles. The strategic importance of copper has increased, making it a focal point in global power dynamics and resource nationalism [10].