赵伟：“十四五”规划回顾与“十五五”规划前瞻（《中国外汇》8月第16期）

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is positioned as a critical period for deepening reforms, tackling challenges, and laying the foundation for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, building on the achievements and challenges of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][22]. Summary by Sections Review of the "14th Five-Year Plan": Achievements, Challenges, and Policy Evolution - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes an upgrade in goal orientation, with a focus on quality over speed, and a significant increase in the importance of livelihood and safety [4][6]. - Key areas of deployment include economic development, industrial innovation, regional layout, rural revitalization, social welfare, green ecology, cultural soft power, and security [5][7]. - The plan has shown significant achievements, with the economy expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [7][8]. Policy Evolution During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - Initial policies focused on energy consumption control led to short-term industrial output declines, prompting a shift towards structural optimization rather than total control [9]. - The transition from administrative directives to market-oriented policies has supported economic growth while promoting green development [9]. Prospects for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on high-quality economic development, deepening green transformation, and key area reforms, with an average nominal growth rate of around 4% needed to meet 2035 goals [12][13]. - Key reform tasks include enhancing market-oriented reforms, promoting new quality productivity, and ensuring ecological and environmental targets are met [14][15]. Key Themes of the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The plan's three main themes are high-quality development, green transformation, and key area reforms, which are interrelated and mutually supportive [15]. - Emphasis will be placed on building resilient and sustainable economic systems, enhancing domestic supply chains, and reducing reliance on external technologies [16]. Signals from Research and Meetings on the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated research topics to support the planning process, focusing on both international and domestic variables affecting economic security and development [17][20]. - Local governments are actively engaging in planning efforts, aligning with national strategies to promote local industries, technological innovation, and ecological protection [21][22].