LSEG跟“宗” | 金价上周再创历史新高后回落 市场借口获利

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the impact of U.S. economic policies, global economic conditions, and market sentiment on gold prices and investment strategies [2][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,378.69 but fell by 1.77% ($76.62) last Friday, despite a 5.8% increase over the week [2][29]. - Year-to-date returns for gold stand at 61.8%, and returns from the end of 2022 to last Friday are at 133%, indicating a significant decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar over the past two years [2][29]. - Bitcoin experienced a 7.8% drop from its peak last week and has declined by 10.6% over the past three months [2][29]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - There are concerns that short-term gold and silver prices may have peaked, but during a bull market, corrections can present buying opportunities [2][29]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by fears regarding the health of U.S. regional banks, leading to a sell-off in bank stocks and profit-taking in gold and silver futures [2][29]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that the U.S. will continue to lower interest rates next year, which is seen as favorable for gold prices [3][30]. - The article suggests that global economic conditions are likely to worsen, particularly outside of China, with signs of stagflation becoming more apparent [5][30]. - Despite increased retail demand for gold and silver, the article posits that retail investors may not have sufficient capital to drive prices significantly higher [5][30]. Group 4: CFTC Data Summary - As of September 23, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 1.1% to 493 million, while net long positions in COMEX silver increased by 5.1% to 6,231 million [6][10]. - The net long position in platinum increased by 24.8% to 28 million, while net long positions in copper turned positive after a significant decline [13][15]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, increased by 2.5% to 81.942, with a year-to-date decline of 9.8% [26]. - The ratio of gold prices to North American gold mining stocks has risen by 2.13% over the past two weeks, indicating a potential divergence in market performance [20][22]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the potential for inflation to resurge if the U.S. begins to lower interest rates, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve [34][29]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend on the interplay between U.S. monetary policy and global economic stability [34][29].