芯片换稀土，是交易还是僵局？

Core Viewpoint - The current global economic situation resembles a tense cold war rather than a globalization feast, with the U.S. and China engaging in a fragile balance of interdependence, particularly in the trade of chips and rare earths [2][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. plans to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports by October 2025, while China tightens controls on rare earth exports, indicating a complex trade relationship [2]. - Both countries are engaged in a "chip for rare earth" dynamic, reflecting a mutual dependency that neither side is willing to fully escape [2][3]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The trend of "de-risking" rather than complete decoupling has become the new normal, with China controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth resources and the U.S. dominating high-end chip design [3]. - The market currently reflects a belief that the U.S. and China will return to a stable state after short-term tensions, as both sides are reluctant to see supply chains collapse [3]. Group 3: Investment Implications - Investors must adapt to increased market volatility, as evidenced by stock price fluctuations despite strong earnings reports from major banks [4]. - The traditional investment logic of "buying the dip" is challenged by new variables such as policy risk, supply chain risk, and trust risk, which now influence valuations [4]. Group 4: Shift in Investment Focus - The focus has shifted from "efficiency first" to "safety first," with the U.S. and Europe implementing protective measures in various sectors [5]. - China's export structure is evolving, with a growing share of rare earths, solar energy, and electric vehicles directed towards non-U.S. markets, indicating a strategic pivot in supply chains [5]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Investment - Strategic resources like gold, rare earths, lithium, and chip equipment are becoming focal points for investment, as they are viewed as geopolitical currencies in a divided world [5]. - There is an increasing valuation mismatch between U.S. banks and large tech stocks, with financial sector profits soaring but stock prices stagnating, while tech stocks remain in demand despite policy pressures [5]. Group 6: Future Market Landscape - The future may see the U.S. continuing to subsidize chips while China exports rare earths, with Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries emerging as new supply chain bridges [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified and patient approach in a policy-driven market, emphasizing the importance of staying engaged in the market despite volatility [6].