地缘冲击之下，对市场波动的慢思考

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while geopolitical events can cause short-term market fluctuations, their long-term impact tends to diminish over time, suggesting that investors should maintain a calm perspective and focus on fundamental trends rather than short-term noise [3][4][7]. Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - The market exhibits a learning ability, showing diminishing marginal effects in response to repeated geopolitical events. Compared to the market's reaction during the U.S.-China tariff conflict in April, the current market volatility is significantly reduced [4]. - Investors have developed stable expectations regarding U.S.-China negotiations due to multiple rounds of discussions throughout the year, which has lessened panic [4]. - The market has become familiar with Trump's negotiation tactics, which include applying pressure followed by signals of potential meetings, thereby reducing fear among investors [4]. Historical Analysis of Geopolitical Events - Historical data from JPMorgan indicates that major geopolitical events from 1940 to 2022 had a temporary negative impact on the S&P 500 index, with average returns lower in the month and three months following such events. However, returns tend to normalize after six months to a year [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index also follows a similar pattern, suggesting that the noise created by geopolitical events is often smoothed out over time [9]. Long-term Market Drivers - The article highlights that short-term market fluctuations due to geopolitical shocks do not necessarily indicate a change in long-term trends. It is crucial to assess whether the core drivers of the market, such as macroeconomic fundamentals, industry evolution, and liquidity conditions, remain stable [13]. - Despite external uncertainties, the fundamental logic supporting equity asset performance has not changed. The current liquidity environment is supported by both domestic and international factors, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13]. Economic Indicators and Policy Support - Recent anti-involution measures have stabilized the PPI growth rate, which is closely linked to industrial profits. As these policies deepen, a recovery in PPI is expected to positively impact corporate earnings [17]. - Upcoming macro policy meetings are anticipated to yield supportive measures that will inject momentum into economic development [17]. - There is a positive trend in investment sentiment, as evidenced by the increase in new fund issuance, indicating growing investor confidence in the equity market [20]. Market Opportunities - Geopolitical shocks often lead to emotional overreactions in the market, creating opportunities to purchase quality assets at reasonable prices. Following the panic earlier in the year, valuable companies regained market recognition [22].