黄金9周连涨后历史复盘：未来一年通常回调20%-40%，仅1970年例外

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily influenced by geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government [2] Trading Structure Concerns - The current gold price increase is characterized by a fragile trading structure, as central banks have not participated, with the market being driven mainly by investors and speculators [3][4] - The absence of central bank buying power has led to increased volatility, as evidenced by the significant growth in ETF sizes, which are typically associated with rapid inflows and outflows [4][5] Technical Indicators Warning - Technical analysis indicates that the recent gold price surge has reached a critical upper limit, suggesting a natural adjustment is due [3][6] - A notable rise in implied volatility of gold ETFs has been observed, historically indicating potential turning points and exhaustion of trends [9] Historical Performance Insights - Historical data shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, adjustments typically range from 20% to 40%, with maximum declines occurring between 23 to 148 trading days later [10][13] - The maximum decline observed in past instances has varied, with the largest drop being 42.3% following a nine-week rise [13] Long-term Bullish Outlook - Despite short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, and ongoing central bank purchases [14]