【招银研究|资本市场快评】黄金大跌的背后——阶段性调整还是牛市见顶信号？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: the rising expectations for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the easing of US-China trade tensions, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds from the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Decline - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices was the joint statement from European leaders on October 21 supporting a ceasefire and initiating talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]. - Additionally, former President Trump’s softened stance and announcement of a visit to China have sent positive signals to the market, contributing to the retreat of safe-haven investments from gold [1]. - The core factor driving the rapid decline was profit-taking by investors, as gold had surged due to multiple risk events, including US government shutdowns and regional banking issues, leading to an extreme bullish sentiment in the market [1]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The current decline in gold prices is viewed as a phase of correction rather than a trend reversal, with expectations that gold will maintain an upward trajectory in the medium to long term [2]. - The anticipated continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, due to weakening employment data and moderate inflation, is expected to create a favorable environment for a gold bull market [2]. - Central bank gold purchases have not shown signs of reversal, providing solid support for gold prices [2]. - Despite concerns about whether gold is overpriced, the investment demand represented by gold ETFs still has room for growth, indicating that the market for gold is not overcrowded [2]. - Overall, while short-term adjustments may occur, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, with expectations that gold prices may challenge the $5,000 mark in the future [2].