黄金牛市终结了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of gold prices, emphasizing its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation, while cautioning against viewing it as a primary investment vehicle for returns [4][27]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged due to various factors, including market fears stemming from tariffs and global stock market corrections, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [6][7]. - Significant events influencing gold prices include a breakthrough of $3000 in March, tariff announcements in April, and fluctuations in October due to political tensions [9][20]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The rise in gold demand is driven by financial instruments like ETFs, making gold purchases as accessible as stock investments. Additionally, there is a trend of de-dollarization, with countries like China increasing their gold reserves significantly, adding approximately 336 tons (≈15%) over 15 months [7][11]. Group 3: Gold as an Inflation Hedge - Historically, gold has not consistently served as a reliable hedge against inflation. Over a 10-year rolling period, gold price volatility is around 15%, while inflation volatility is less than 2%, indicating that gold may not be suitable for stable inflation hedging [13][14]. - The correlation between gold returns and inflation is weak, with gold showing periods of both leading and lagging performance relative to inflation over 40 years [16][20]. Group 4: Performance During Market Downturns - In 11 major stock market pullbacks, gold prices increased in 8 instances, demonstrating its effectiveness as a hedge during economic downturns. During four economic recessions, gold yielded positive returns in three cases, contrasting with the performance of the S&P 500 [18][22]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Historical data suggests that after reaching peak prices, such as in 1980 and 2011, gold has delivered negative real returns over the subsequent decade. Therefore, while gold serves as "crisis insurance," it is not a "return engine," and investors are advised to maintain a low allocation rather than making concentrated bets [25][27][30].