重磅会议召开，“十五五”规划怎么看？（上篇）｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China, emphasizing the need to adapt to significant changes in the external environment and the importance of high-quality development to achieve modernization goals by 2035 [2][24]. Group 1: External Environment Changes - The new round of technological revolution is advancing, with artificial intelligence becoming a core area of competition, leading to increased pressure on China to enhance its independent innovation capabilities [3][27]. - Global supply chains are being restructured, shifting focus from cost and efficiency to security and stability, which presents both opportunities and challenges for China as the largest manufacturing center [3][29]. - The global governance system is undergoing transformation, with emerging multilateral mechanisms playing a significant role in addressing global issues, while traditional mechanisms struggle [3][30]. Group 2: Economic Development Characteristics - Economic growth is converging towards a medium speed, with contributions from labor diminishing due to demographic changes, while quality and efficiency are improving [4][44]. - New industrialization is advancing, with a shift towards digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in traditional industries, leading to the emergence of new manufacturing applications [4][45]. - Urbanization is transitioning from high-speed to medium-speed, focusing on improving the quality of urban life and public services [4][46]. - The green and low-carbon transition is entering a critical phase, with energy consumption growth slowing down and pollution emissions reaching peak levels [4][47]. Group 3: Market Development Strategies - Building a unified national market is essential for unleashing domestic demand potential and promoting high-quality development, requiring the removal of market barriers and the establishment of fair competition [5][10]. - The super-large market size provides significant advantages, including economies of scale, diverse production factors, and enhanced innovation capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness [7][8][34]. - The construction of a unified market must address issues such as local protectionism and market segmentation to facilitate smoother resource flow and enhance market advantages [19][21]. Group 4: Challenges in Economic Development - Population decline and aging are accelerating, leading to a decrease in the labor force and impacting consumption demand, which poses a challenge to economic growth [39]. - Technological innovation is not yet aligned with the requirements for high-quality development, with insufficient investment in basic research and a lack of leading talents [40]. - The transition from traditional growth drivers to new ones is challenging, as sectors like real estate face significant adjustments, impacting overall economic performance [41]. - The pressure to shift traditional development methods is increasing, necessitating a focus on consumption-driven growth rather than investment and export-led strategies [42]. Group 5: Future Economic Trends - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for promoting high-quality development and transforming economic structures, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [43][49]. - The integration of new technologies and industries will drive economic growth, with strategic emerging industries expected to play a significant role in the future [36][38].