从安倍经济学到早苗经济学｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant historical moment, coinciding with Japan's economic restructuring and cyclical adjustments, leading to high expectations for the new government's policy direction [2][6]. Economic Context - Japan's inflation has gradually moved out of a long-term low zone, with the monthly CPI maintaining a year-on-year growth of 2%-4% since April 2022. Average wage growth from spring negotiations is expected to exceed 5% in 2024 and 2025, the highest in nearly 30 years [6][10]. - Current inflation is primarily driven by short-term factors such as rising food, energy, and import prices, with a CPI growth of 3.1% in July 2025, while the inflation rate excluding energy and food is only 1.6% [7][10]. Economic Policy Framework - Kishida's economic policy, termed "Kishida Economics," continues the macroeconomic policy approach of Abenomics, emphasizing active policy intervention to address structural stagnation. It retains the "three arrows" of Abenomics: accommodative monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy, and structural reforms [2][10]. - Kishida's approach places greater emphasis on strategic investment and structural orientation, focusing on fiscal spending to guide industrial upgrades and enhance supply chain resilience and technological competitiveness [2][11]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The pace of monetary policy normalization in Japan may slow, putting short-term pressure on the yen, but medium to long-term support is expected as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle [3][15]. - Kishida's fiscal policy aims to shift from short-term economic stimulus to long-term development goals, focusing on efficiency in fiscal spending and investing in key sectors like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing [11][14]. Market Implications - The expansionary fiscal policy under Kishida may lead to an increase in net supply pressure on Japanese government bonds, potentially steepening the yield curve if the Bank of Japan slows its monetary policy normalization [14][15]. - Japan's financial market has significant spillover effects on Asian markets, with the performance of Japanese equities often serving as a signal for global funds reallocating to Asian risk assets [3][15].