外汇市场保持着较强的韧性和活力：申万期货早间评论-20251023

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, with active and balanced cross-border capital flows and a stable supply-demand relationship [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market - In September, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, characterized by active and balanced cross-border capital flows [1] - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in the first three quarters reached 11.6 trillion USD, a historical high for the same period [1] - Net capital inflow was 119.7 billion USD, and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 63.2 billion USD, both higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2: Commodities Oil - The main crude oil contract rose by 1.65% to 449.1 CNY per barrel [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 831.388 million barrels, down by 142,000 barrels from the previous week [2] - The downward trend in oil prices remains difficult to change despite recent fluctuations [2] Precious Metals - Gold and silver experienced significant adjustments at high levels, with the potential for further easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - Central banks continue to increase gold holdings amid rising distrust in the current financial system, enhancing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3] - After rapid price increases, profit-taking has led to sharp adjustments in gold prices [3] Stock Indices - The three major U.S. indices fell, with the oil and petrochemical sectors leading gains while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [4] - The financing balance increased by 14.054 billion CNY to 2.427285 trillion CNY on October 21 [4] - The market is expected to enter a phase of directional choice, with a potential shift towards value recovery in the fourth quarter [4] Group 3: Key News International News - As of October 21, the U.S. federal government debt exceeded 38 trillion USD for the first time, marking a significant increase in a short period [7] Domestic News - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 was 17.7% in September, indicating ongoing labor market challenges [8] Industry News - The civil aviation industry completed a total transportation turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [9]