美股IPO·2025-10-23 03:46Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is expected to drive valuation expansion in the Japanese stock market through growth strategies, corporate governance reforms, and improvements in ESG ratings, potentially doubling the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [1][3][4]. Group 1: Morgan Stanley's Analysis - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the government implements growth strategies and corporate governance reforms, the expected growth rate of companies could increase by 0.5 percentage points, while the cost of capital could decrease by 0.5 percentage points, leading to a potential doubling of the expected P/E ratios for the Nikkei Index and TOPIX [4][5]. - The growth strategies advocated by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party are expected to enhance corporate earnings growth expectations and expand P/E ratios through market-friendly policies such as fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, deregulation, and innovation support [4][5]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the significance of improving ESG ratings, suggesting that Takaichi's leadership may reduce Japan's ESG risk premium, potentially attracting foreign investors back to Japanese stocks as a signal of commitment to governance reforms [5][6]. Group 2: Citigroup's Perspective - Citigroup highlights that despite the ruling coalition not having a majority in both houses, support from smaller conservative parties and independents allows Takaichi's government to effectively push policies, which are expected to drive the Japanese stock market upward [7][8]. - The bank maintains its forecast that the TOPIX index will reach 3,400 points by December 2025 and 3,500 points by March 2026, while the Nikkei 225 index is projected to hit 51,000 points and 52,500 points in the same timeframe, viewing 50,000 points as merely a "checkpoint" rather than a terminal point [3][10]. - Citigroup outlines key policy expectations from Takaichi's government, including tax relief for families facing income declines, investment promotion in growth sectors, and measures to stabilize wages and prices, which could potentially boost the Japanese economy and stock market [8][9].