POP MART(HK:09992) 券商中国·2025-10-23 08:41Core Viewpoint - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong experienced a significant sell-off, with leading stocks like Pop Mart and Mixue Group facing substantial declines, raising concerns about the sustainability of their future growth rates and valuations [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On October 23, Pop Mart's stock price dropped over 11% at one point, closing with a decline of 9.36%, resulting in a market capitalization of HKD 312.1 billion [3][4]. - The overall new consumption sector in Hong Kong saw widespread declines, with stocks like Guming down nearly 7% and others like Mixue Group and Weilong down over 4% [3][5]. Financial Performance of Pop Mart - Pop Mart reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 245%-250% for Q3 2025, continuing its strong performance from the first half of the year [5][7]. - The revenue growth was driven by a 185%-190% increase in the Chinese market and a remarkable 365%-370% increase in overseas markets, particularly in the Americas, which saw a staggering 1265%-1270% growth [5][6]. Analyst Insights - Concerns about Pop Mart's future revenue growth have emerged, particularly regarding the sustainability of demand for its Labubu products and the overall performance of new IPs [6][7]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities noted that the stock's decline was influenced by weak high-frequency data from North America and uncertainties regarding 2026 performance [6]. - Morgan Stanley upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "neutral" to "overweight," citing strong performance of popular IPs and improved valuation attractiveness [6][7]. Market Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms believe that the recent market adjustments are nearing an end, with positive changes in core disruptive factors and expectations of foreign capital inflow due to ongoing Fed rate cut expectations [1][8]. - The A-share and Hong Kong markets showed signs of recovery, with major indices rebounding, indicating potential for further upward movement in the market [8][9].