黄金9周连涨后历史复盘：未来一年通常回调20%-40%，仅1970年例外

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping 6.3% and marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years, is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing trade relations, and the reopening of the U.S. government. Despite this short-term volatility, the long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The current gold price surge is fundamentally different from earlier trends, as central banks have not participated in the recent price increases since September. The rise has been primarily driven by investment and speculative traders, indicating a lack of stability typically provided by central bank purchases [3][6]. - The significant increase in ETF sizes during this gold price rise contrasts sharply with earlier trading conditions, as ETF funds are characterized by rapid inflows and outflows, leading to heightened volatility [4][6]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggested that the recent gold price surge was unsustainable, as it reached the upper limit of three standard deviations, a point historically associated with subsequent price corrections [7][9]. - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, which historically signals potential turning points and exhaustion of trends, providing a clear warning of an impending sharp correction [9]. Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise in gold prices, the typical adjustment range has been between 20% to 40%. The maximum declines observed in past instances ranged from 17% to 42%, with the most significant drops occurring between 23 to 148 trading days after the peak [12][14]. - Despite the short-term adjustment pressures, the long-term bullish narrative for gold remains strong, supported by the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and structural supply-demand imbalances [12][14].