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【机械制造】人类终极能源,行业资本开支进入扩张期——可控核聚变行业系列报告之二(陈佳宁/汲萌/夏天宇)
光大证券研究·2025-10-23 09:46

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the strategic value of fusion energy, highlighting its advantages such as high energy density, relative ease of raw material acquisition, high safety, and zero carbon emissions, positioning it as a potential "ultimate energy" source [4] - It is predicted that by 2050, data centers will account for 5%-9% of global electricity consumption due to the surge in demand from cloud computing, cryptocurrency, and AI [4] - Since 2021, global financing in the fusion energy sector has significantly increased, with a total equity financing amount reaching $9.7 billion by July 2025 [4] Group 2 - China is transitioning from a participant in the ITER project to an industry leader, with significant investments in fusion energy projects exceeding 150 billion yuan as of September 2025 [5] - The domestic fusion energy sector is expected to enter a phase of engineering experimental pile construction around 2027, leading to further expansion in project scale and investment [5] - The article notes that the core suppliers in the fusion energy industry are likely to benefit from the ongoing capital expenditure expansion [5] Group 3 - High-value components such as magnet systems, vacuum chambers, and power systems are expected to benefit from accelerated industry capital expenditures, with cost shares of 28%, 25%, and 15% respectively [6] - The magnet system is identified as the core of the magnetic confinement fusion device, with its performance being crucial for fusion power output [6] - The design of the vacuum chamber and internal components poses significant challenges, impacting the lifespan of the tokamak devices [7]