Dark Horse Technology (SZ:300688) 创业家·2025-10-23 10:25Core Viewpoint - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, with long-lasting effects on consumer behavior and investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - There is a common challenge stemming from the uncertainty of IPO exit prospects, which has shown some recovery since last year [2]. - The long-term view indicates a transformation in consumption culture and expectations, as proposed by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" by Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, highlighting the evolving drivers behind consumer behavior [3]. - The Chinese consumption market is distinctly layered, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting varied investment opportunities [10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Recent years have seen a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market challenges are increasingly favored by consumers as a form of self-reward [10]. - The trend of trial-based consumption, often associated with internet celebrities, is declining as consumers prioritize conservative spending amid uncertain income growth expectations [11]. - The investment focus is shifting towards mid-to-high-end brands, which are seen as having a higher success rate due to their differentiation in the market [13]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is anticipated, driven by improvements in manufacturing quality and deeper brand understanding among entrepreneurs [14]. - Key trends for future investment include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating strong consumer demand in these areas [14].