【招银研究|行业深度】储能行业之抽水蓄能——抽蓄步入战略发展期，关注下游中长期融资需求

Core Viewpoint - Pumped storage will continue to be in a strategic development period, with an expected average annual compound growth rate of over 14% for new installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The rapid increase in renewable energy penetration is driving the demand for flexible resources in the power grid, which can be met by pumped storage due to its technological maturity and cost-effectiveness [3][6][21]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for pumped storage installations is primarily influenced by the penetration rate of renewable energy, project planning, and electricity pricing policies. The current pricing policy has clarified the profitability model for pumped storage, making long-term development planning crucial for its growth [3][4][21]. - The cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is expected to reach 120 GW by 2030, doubling from 62 GW at the end of 2025, indicating significant growth potential in the next five years [3][21]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The two-part electricity pricing policy underpins the revenue expectations for pumped storage, with initial investment costs, financing costs, operational expenses, and electricity price income being the core variables affecting profitability [4][32]. - The actual yield of pumped storage projects is closely related to initial investment costs, financing costs, operational expenses, and electricity price income. Lower financing and operational costs lead to better yield outcomes [4][32]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Financing - The pumped storage industry chain is mature, with the downstream investment sector expected to have a financing demand exceeding 270 billion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, making it a significant target for bank funding [5]. - The State Grid maintains a leading position in the pumped storage sector, with its pumped storage division upgraded to a directly subordinate unit, enhancing its capacity to mobilize substantial investment in future projects [5]. Group 4: Technological Maturity and Cost Efficiency - Pumped storage is currently the most mature and cost-effective technology for large-capacity, long-duration energy storage, with a lifecycle cost per kilowatt-hour that is the lowest among various storage technologies [14][19]. - The lifecycle cost advantages of pumped storage stem from moderate initial investment, low operational maintenance costs, and high energy conversion efficiency, typically reaching 75%-80% [19]. Group 5: Future Development and Policy Support - The medium- to long-term development plan for pumped storage ensures sustainable growth, with an expected average annual compound growth rate of around 14% for new installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan [21][28]. - The two-part pricing policy is expected to stabilize revenue, while the initial investment costs are projected to remain stable, with regional variations in costs due to differing construction conditions [32][48].