风险月报 | 情绪大幅降温，估值与预期走出分化

Market Overview - The risk scoring for the stock market by Zhongtai Asset Management is 45.79, a significant drop from 62.77 last month, primarily due to a notable decline in market sentiment [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has increased to 64.74 from 61.90 last month, marking a continuous rise in the overall valuation center for six months [2] - There is a clear differentiation in valuations across sectors, with industries like steel, electronics, real estate, and others remaining above the historical 60th percentile, while the agriculture sector remains below the 10th percentile [2] Economic Indicators - Market expectation scores have slightly improved to 55.00 from 50.00 last month, driven by better-than-expected import and export growth in September [3] - Economic growth has slowed since Q3, but there is no acceleration in the downturn compared to the same period last year [3] - The global liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts, but geopolitical conflicts and uneven recovery among major economies add uncertainty to the domestic economic environment [3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has experienced a drastic decline to 22.24 from 70.03 last month, indicating a shift from a significantly positive to a low sentiment range [5] - Various sentiment indicators have shown a cooling trend, with margin financing scores dropping significantly and retail fund inflows into the equity market slowing down [5] - The current market presents a mixed pattern of rising valuation centers, stable expectations, and sharply declining sentiment, suggesting a need for investors to approach market indicators with rationality [5] Bond Market Analysis - The risk scoring for the bond market is 61.7, reflecting a continuation of weak economic data, particularly in consumption [7] - Fixed asset investment growth has turned negative for the first time since the pandemic, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market has shown signs of marginal weakening, with a decline in social financing growth since July [9] Key Economic Data - In Q3 2025, the actual GDP growth rate is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% [8] - The industrial value-added growth in September is reported at 6.5%, while retail sales growth is at 3.0% [8] - The total social financing in September is 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.61 trillion yuan [9]