井冈山大学，首次发表Nature论文

Core Insights - The lithium-ion battery supply chain is crucial for global decarbonization, but its production is geographically dispersed, posing significant carbon management challenges [4][6] - A study published in Nature developed a Lithium Circular Computable General Equilibrium (LCCGE) model to assess decarbonization pathways, revealing a "value-emission paradox" in the supply chain [4][6] - The research emphasizes that global cooperation and localized strategies are key to achieving effective decarbonization [4][6] Supply Chain Carbon Footprint Dilemma - The lithium-ion battery market is projected to grow from $30 billion in 2020 to $180 billion by 2030, yet the carbon footprint from production can offset environmental benefits during usage [6] - The geographical distribution of the global supply chain complicates carbon accounting and reduction management [6] Value-Emission Paradox - Analysis from 2018-2022 shows that upstream mining contributes only 18.78% of economic value but accounts for 38.52% of carbon emissions, while downstream production generates 42.56% of value with only 34.82% of emissions [8] - This structural imbalance is particularly pronounced in resource-rich regions like the "Lithium Triangle" (Bolivia, Chile, Argentina) [8] Geographic Distribution and Carbon Inequality - China dominates production, accounting for 51.40% of global emissions, significantly higher than the "Lithium Triangle" [11] - The EU and the US are major net importers of embedded carbon, with the EU's consumption-based emissions being over six times its production-based export emissions in 2022 [11] Innovative Research Methodology - The LCCGE model integrates lifecycle thinking with global economic dynamics, allowing for comprehensive assessments of economic and environmental outcomes [13] - The study explores 1,036 integrated pathways for decarbonization, considering various socio-economic scenarios and recycling intensities [14] Complexity of Recycling Strategies - Recycling is essential for a circular economy, but its policy design requires careful consideration to avoid negative cross-regional spillover effects [16] - Consumer-oriented strategies yield the best global results, but their effectiveness varies across regions [16] Regional Differentiated Strategies - Optimal decarbonization is achieved through customized strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all global directive [18] - The study identifies that technology-trade cooperation is the most effective strategy for China, while developed economies benefit from environmental-technology collaboration [18] Efficiency vs. Equity Trade-off - Maximizing global efficiency may externalize environmental burdens to resource-exporting countries, highlighting the need for multi-objective approaches in policy design [20] - Strategies that appear globally optimal may not benefit all participants equally, necessitating robust frameworks to address distributional impacts [20] Feasible and Equitable Transition Framework - A comprehensive multi-level framework is essential for deep and equitable decarbonization of the lithium-ion battery supply chain [22] - The framework should be based on international cooperation and tailored approaches according to regional readiness, with a unified data platform for lifecycle carbon footprint standards [23]