负极产销两旺，供需变化或将酝酿涨价？

Core Viewpoint - The negative electrode materials market is experiencing a significant increase in demand, with some companies raising processing order prices, indicating early signs of "volume and price resonance" [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent reports indicate that some negative electrode processing orders have increased by 2000 to 3000 yuan per ton, with price hikes expected to extend to core customers in the fourth quarter [3]. - Major negative electrode companies are facing full order books and are actively seeking external processing capacity to alleviate production pressure. For instance, Sichuan Sijian Technology reported a monthly shipment exceeding 14,000 tons, far surpassing its designed capacity [4]. - In September, domestic negative electrode material production exceeded 270,000 tons, marking a new high for the year, with the operating rate of small and medium-sized manufacturers rising from 55% to 70%, leading to an overall industry capacity utilization rate above 75% [4]. Group 2: Cost Pressures - Rising production costs are contributing to the push for price increases, with high-sulfur calcined coke prices rising by 100 to 200 yuan per ton, and low-sulfur petroleum coke experiencing monthly increases of 80 to 140 yuan per ton [5]. - The end of preferential electricity prices in the southwestern region is expected to further increase electricity costs, adding to the pressure on graphite processing. Current mainstream processing fees range from 8000 to 9600 yuan per ton, with many companies showing a more proactive attitude towards price adjustments, although widespread implementation has not yet occurred [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - Despite the current robust production and sales, there remains significant structural buffer space within the industry, indicating that supply and demand have not fully reversed [7]. - Data shows that domestic graphite processing capacity exceeds 4.7 million tons, with substantial internal buffer space between integrated negative electrode materials and outsourced processing, leading to a stalemate in the supply-demand state [8]. - The current operational characteristics of the negative electrode graphite industry are characterized by "increased volume, stable prices, and thin profits," with excess capacity still exerting pressure, and the demand recovery insufficient to support a reversal in supply-demand dynamics [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The price turning point has yet to be confirmed, but trends are accumulating. The interplay of rising demand, cost pressures, and structural oversupply maintains a delicate market balance [10]. - Observing from the perspective of the entire lithium battery industry chain, the negative electrode, being one of the slowest segments to clear, suggests that price and supply-demand adjustments may indicate a shift towards a new equilibrium in the lithium battery industry [10].