TSMC(US:TSM) 材料汇·2025-10-23 13:43Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of semiconductor processes, highlighting the dual-track competition between advanced and mature processes, and the implications for global technology competition and opportunities for China [2][3]. Group 1: Price and Technology Insights - The price of chips decreases as the process size decreases, with 3nm chips priced around $20,000 per piece, expected to rise to over $30,000 for 2nm chips by 2026 [5][6]. - The price differences are driven by two main factors: the scarcity of production capacity and the complexity of technology, with advanced processes requiring significantly more steps and equipment [6][11]. - Major tech companies are adopting different strategies: Apple is taking a cautious approach, Nvidia focuses on cost-performance balance, while Qualcomm and MediaTek are aggressively pursuing next-generation processes [7][8]. Group 2: TSMC's Dominance - TSMC plays a crucial role in defining industry trends, with 3nm chips expected to account for nearly 30% of its revenue, and plans to ramp up production significantly in the coming years [9][10]. - The investment required for advanced production lines is substantial, with a 2nm line costing around $10 billion, reflecting the increasing number of necessary equipment [10][11]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - Key technical challenges in semiconductor processes include advancements in lithography, architectural transitions, and design-technology co-optimization (DTCO) [12][13]. - EUV lithography is currently the main technology, with High-NA technology not yet ready for widespread use due to maturity and cost issues [14][15]. - The transition from FinFET to GAA architecture is increasing the demand for ALD equipment, which is critical for the new structures [16]. Group 4: Global Competition Landscape - TSMC leads the semiconductor process competition, while Samsung and Intel face significant challenges, including equipment procurement strategies and financial losses [18][21]. - Samsung's aggressive early procurement of EUV equipment led to higher costs due to lower yield rates, while TSMC's cautious approach has proven more effective [20]. - Intel's financial struggles are impacting its ability to compete in advanced processes, raising concerns about its future in the foundry business [21]. Group 5: Opportunities and Challenges for China - China's semiconductor industry is focusing on mature processes (28nm and above), with companies like SMIC making significant progress in yield rates and production capacity [24][25]. - Despite advancements, challenges remain, including higher production costs and competition from TSMC, which has superior technology and customer quality [25]. - Long-term opportunities exist in the growing demand for automotive electronics and IoT, supported by government initiatives and investments [26]. Group 6: Future Directions - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue evolving beyond 2nm, with innovations like backside power delivery and CFET technology anticipated in the coming years [27]. - The industry is committed to gradual breakthroughs, focusing on both mature and advanced processes to strengthen its competitive position globally [28]. Conclusion - The competition in semiconductor technology is a comprehensive battle involving technical, capital, and market dynamics, with TSMC and China’s semiconductor industry navigating their respective paths [29].