硬AI·2025-10-23 13:28Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) as a forward-looking indicator for assessing the future revenue, growth quality, and potential risks of tech giants, especially in the context of the current AI investment boom [2][3][5]. RPO Overview - RPO represents the portion of legally binding and irrevocable contracts that a company has signed, which are yet to be fulfilled and recognized as revenue. It excludes optional renewals or contracts with no significant penalties for termination [5]. - A growing RPO balance typically indicates strong new orders and stable customer relationships, while a declining RPO may signal slowing sales momentum or shorter contract durations [5]. RPO Growth Among Key Companies - Several key companies in the AI ecosystem have experienced explosive growth in RPO balances over the past six quarters: - Microsoft’s RPO increased by 55% [6]. - Coreweave’s RPO surged by 218% [7]. - Oracle’s RPO astonishingly grew by 411%, with the company disclosing approximately $65 billion in incremental RPO from just four customers [8]. RPO Quality and Contract Duration - The quality of RPO varies significantly among companies, particularly regarding contract duration. Oracle and Coreweave's substantial RPO is primarily derived from long-term contracts, while Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have shorter agreement terms [10]. - The ratio of RPO to the past 12 months' revenue reveals that Coreweave and Oracle have ratios of 14.4x and 8.5x, respectively, while Microsoft’s ratio is only 1.3x, and Amazon and Google are around 0.3x [10][13]. Valuation Implications - Comparing RPO to company market capitalization provides insights into valuation impacts. Coreweave and Oracle have RPO accounting for 81% and 60% of their market values, respectively, while Microsoft’s ratio is only 9% [15]. - This disparity indicates that investors attribute a significant portion of Coreweave and Oracle's value to their contracted future revenues, whereas Microsoft, Amazon, and Google’s valuations reflect broader growth opportunities beyond signed contracts [15]. Risks and Uncertainties - Companies like Coreweave and Oracle face execution risks related to the costs of fulfilling large-scale contracts, which can affect the ultimate return rates of these contracts [16]. - There is also a customer concentration risk due to the interconnected relationships within the AI ecosystem, creating a "chain" of dependencies among participants [17]. Nvidia's Unique Model - In contrast to the aforementioned companies, Nvidia has maintained a relatively low RPO balance of around $1.8 billion, reflecting its unique "optional procurement" business model, which does not involve long-term commitments [20]. - This model provides Nvidia with flexibility but also means that its future revenue visibility cannot be captured through RPO metrics [22].