黄金巨震，加仓还是跑路？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, attributing it to market volatility and the potential impact of geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while emphasizing the long-term bullish outlook on gold due to ongoing monetary policy trends and concerns over sovereign credit risk [5][11][29]. Group 1: Market Volatility and Price Movements - Gold prices fell by 5% on October 21, 2025, marking the largest single-day drop in 12 years [5]. - The volatility of gold ETFs has reached its highest level in five years, indicating a divergence between profit-taking and short-selling activities, suggesting a potential market peak [7]. - Historical data shows that during major uptrends in gold prices, short-term declines typically exceed 10% [9]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The recent drop in gold prices coincided with widespread news about a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although experts believe a comprehensive peace agreement is unlikely [11][12]. - The article argues that the market has already priced in the prolonged conflict, and any ceasefire would likely only lead to increased short-term volatility rather than a significant change in gold prices [13]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook on Gold - The author maintains that gold prices will continue to rise throughout the current interest rate cut cycle, as evidenced by past trends during previous rate cuts [19][22]. - Concerns over rising national debt and the sustainability of government finances are leading to a reassessment of sovereign credit risk, which could drive investors towards gold as a safe haven [24][30]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article suggests maintaining a cautious approach to gold investments, recommending a strategy of adding to positions incrementally as prices decline [31]. - It emphasizes the importance of controlling overall exposure to gold, given the potential for significant price drops similar to past occurrences [31].