中金 | 全球医疗器械：哪些增长点值得关注？

Core Viewpoint - The global medical device market is experiencing steady growth, driven by factors such as aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence, technological advancements, policy support, and improvements in healthcare systems. The market size is projected to reach $862.6 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2030 [2][6]. Market Overview - The global medical device market is expected to reach $675.4 billion by 2025, with North America and Europe accounting for 32% and 25% of the market share, respectively. Emerging markets like Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East are expected to grow at faster rates of 8.6%, 7.5%, and 7.4% from 2021 to 2025 [6][10]. - High-value consumables represent the largest segment of the market, accounting for 32% of the total market size in 2025, followed by other categories such as low-value consumables, medical imaging, and in vitro diagnostics [9][10]. Valuation System - A review of 15 leading global medical device companies reveals a significant valuation differentiation based on growth quality. High-growth leaders can enjoy P/E ratios ranging from 31x to 57x for 2025E, while mature platform companies typically see valuations between 13x and 18x [2][3]. Innovation and Growth Drivers - Eight key segments are identified for future growth, including electrophysiology, renal denervation (RDN), complex vascular interventions, structural heart, neuroscience, surgical robotics, endoscopy, and glucose management. These areas are expected to see product iterations and technological advancements that could lead to significant market opportunities [3][21]. - The aging population is a major driver of demand for medical devices, as older adults are more susceptible to chronic diseases, leading to increased needs for monitoring and management solutions [11][13]. Supply-Side Dynamics - Technological innovation is a core engine driving the evolution of the medical device industry. The transition from invasive surgeries to minimally invasive techniques is evident across various fields, enhancing treatment precision and patient outcomes [13][16]. - The development of new technologies, such as artificial intelligence in diagnostics and robotic-assisted surgeries, is expected to further enhance the capabilities and market reach of medical devices [21][23]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the medical device industry include Medtronic, Johnson & Johnson, and Siemens Healthineers, with significant revenues projected for 2024. The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on cardiovascular, imaging, surgical, orthopedic, and diabetes management segments [10][21]. Future Growth Points - The growth of the medical device market will be driven by continuous iteration of existing technologies, disruptive new products, and the integration of smart technologies. Key areas of focus include electrophysiology, structural heart interventions, and the application of AI in various medical contexts [21][22][23].