独家洞察 | 日本第一位女首相诞生，高市早苗时代开启

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a historic moment in Japanese politics, with significant implications for economic policy and market reactions [1][3]. Group 1: Election and Market Reaction - Takaichi won the Prime Minister election with a majority vote, reflecting a shift in Japan's political landscape [1]. - Her proposed expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, including tax cuts and increased infrastructure investment, have generated investor optimism, leading to a surge in the Nikkei 225 index, which reached a historic high of 49,316.06 points [3]. - The initial market enthusiasm is compared to the previous "Abenomics" era, indicating a potential new wave of economic stimulus [5]. Group 2: Political Challenges - Takaichi's path to premiership faced challenges, including the unexpected withdrawal of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition, which ended a 26-year partnership and created a cabinet formation crisis [3][4]. - The Japan Restoration Party's agreement to support Takaichi in a "non-cabinet cooperation" manner raises concerns about the stability of her government, as it reflects cautious political maneuvering rather than full trust [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market's initial excitement may cool down, as the new coalition government may not fully support Takaichi's expansive agenda due to political and fiscal constraints [6]. - The focus is shifting from inflationary stimulus to political stability, with investors now prioritizing the potential for structural reforms and domestic demand-related sectors [6]. - Public support for Takaichi's cabinet stands at 44%, significantly higher than previous administrations, but the support for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party remains low at 20%, indicating a trust gap that Takaichi must address [7].