黄金大跌，下一轮行情盯紧央行动作

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, highlighting a significant drop after reaching a historical peak, and explores the implications for the gold market and other metals like aluminum, silver, and copper [3][5][19]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4,381 per ounce before experiencing a sharp decline of over 6%, dropping below $4,100, marking the most severe drop since 2013 [3][5]. - The current gold cycle began in Q4 2022, confirmed in 2023, and is now in a major upward phase [6]. - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes from March to November 2022 significantly impacted gold prices, with a series of rate increases culminating in a peak rate of 5.50% in July 2023 [9][10]. - Despite the Fed's rate hikes, gold prices began to recover after hitting a low in September 2022, with a notable increase in 2023 driven by geopolitical tensions and rising demand for safe-haven assets [11][12]. Central Bank Purchases - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with net purchases reaching 1,082 tons in 2022 and 1,037 tons in 2023, indicating a structural change in the gold market [13][14]. - The trend of central banks buying gold is expected to continue, with projections for 2024 showing net purchases of 1,044.6 tons [13][18]. - The cautious approach of central banks in recent months suggests a strategic wait-and-see attitude regarding future gold price movements [15][18]. Other Metals to Watch - Silver and copper prices have also surged in 2023, with silver prices increasing by over 70% and copper prices reaching a near one-year high of $10,700 per ton [19]. - In contrast, aluminum prices have not performed as well, with annual growth rates of -6.38% in 2022 and only modest increases in subsequent years [21]. - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow, particularly in the automotive sector, with predictions of a supply shortage starting in 2028, which could lead to a price increase of 50%-60% [21].