国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-24 13:45Core Viewpoint - The impact of alpha factors on China's export growth is increasingly significant, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite potential risks from alpha factors [1][4]. Group 1: Alpha Factors Impacting Exports - The article emphasizes the importance of alpha factors such as tariff changes, order front-loading, re-export regulations, and currency fluctuations on exports, moving away from reliance on beta factors [1][7]. - The new trade pattern is shaped by tariff shocks and geopolitical shifts, particularly the "interconnected yet separate" relationship between China and the U.S. [2][9]. - The performance of new industries in exports is attributed to China's internal economic transformation and industrial upgrades [2][14]. Group 2: 2026 Export Outlook - Order front-loading effects are largely absorbed, with limited risk of further exposure in the future [3][22]. - Re-export regulations are expected to have a minimal impact, as the focus is primarily on low-value or non-processed re-exports [3][25]. - The likelihood of increased tariffs is low, with diminishing impacts from existing tariffs due to effective countermeasures by China [3][32]. - Currency appreciation is anticipated to reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume may remain stable [3][37]. - The global economic outlook is expected to support China's export growth, with IMF predicting a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 [4][41].